We hear many times that potential buyers think “its a good time” in the real estate market.  Others will agree, but are still convinced of further price decline.  The showings are great evidence of the buyer’s willingness to ‘look’ at real estate.

I feel this is good ’Ju-Ju’ for the next 3 months in North County.  Buyers will often shop in today’s market between 3-6 months.  This high number of showings tells us that we should have a brisk April-June selling season.

The Lund Team received this property to sell approximately two weeks ago and is not in the process of listing the property for sale. The home is not yet listed in the MLS.

Large single family home on the border of Carlsbad and Sal Elijo Hills in the newer development Old Creek Ranch. Nicely upgraded residence: granite counters, dark wood cabinetry, wood and tile flooring, tile bathroom counters, custom stair railing and recessed lighting. Rear yard is large with a built in fire pit.

5 Bedroom, 3 Bath, and Approx. 3,152 Sq. Ft.

For more information contact The Lund Team

Call: (760) 438-0800 or Email: REO@LundTeam.com

5 Bedrooms + 2 Optional, 3.5 Bath, and approx. 4,612 Square Feet

Large spacious executive style residence, custom marble flooring in the foyer, downstairs office, dining room with designer chandelier, dual staircase off entry and family room, bonus room with view balcony. Oversized gourmet kitchen: granite counters, stainless steel GE Monogram appliances, two sinks, dual ovens, and eat in bar. The large family room offers a built in entertainment center and custom stone fireplace and mantle. Master suite: separate retreat/study area, private balcony with ocean and golf course views. Master bath: Jacuzzi tub, marble enclosed shower, bronze fixtures, walk-in-closet and dual vanities. The inviting rear yard has mature landscape, covered patio, outdoor kitchen, and built in spa.

For pricing and more information contact The Lund Team:

REO@lundteam.com or call (760) 438-0800

The West Hills Bluffs community offers several amenities to its residents including three separate pool/spa facilities, a tennis court, and ample guest parking. Within walking distance of two world class resorts: La Costa Resort and Spa and The Four Seasons at Aviara, Carlsbad city library, shopping, dining, and more… IN CARLSBAD UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT!!

6907 Quail Place #D Carlsbad, CA, 92009

For more information or to schedule a showing contact REO@LundTeam.com or call (760) 438-0800

*Update – HOA fees are set to drop from $225.00 monthly to $191.00 on February 1st, 2010.    ;)

With such low inventory, we expect prices to begin gradually increasing. Simple supply and demand for one of Carlsbad’s more desirable areas. With the recent completion of the Bressi Shopping Center, the upcoming Boys and Girls Club, numerous restaurants, Carlsbad schools and new Carlsbad park - all within walking distance.

** We have an upcoming property for sale – on Garden House Road – Street of the models across from Bressi community park and pool area. ** It is a 4+ bedroom home with an OVERSIZED yard! 

Please email Garrett@lundteam.com or call 760.438.0800 for a sneak peek before this one hits the market.

Bressi Ranch of Carlsbad

And Zell followed in the interview to predict a turnaround in the broader real estate market : “I think the direction of the real estate market will change in the first part of next year (2009)”.  (video below)

His contrarian prediction has since proven true.   

And Zell’s larger macro-concept of restricted supply articulates clearly the current real estate market in Carlsbad.  A restricted supply of Carlsbad housing halted the downward trend in pricing in 2009.  In 2008, Carlsbad had 12+ months of sellable homes.  Buyers had a number of choices and were demanding steep discounts off already lower prices.  But as fewer homes came onto the market in 2009.  Sellable inventory shrank to 2.5 months of supply.  Buyers would search for months and find the same few “dog” or undesirable properties.  More desirable homes in the $800’s and under had multiple parties willing to bid near full asking price to be the winning bid.  In mid-2009, the ‘bid’ to ‘asking-price’ went from a 96% average in 2008 to 99%.       

The final three months of the 2009 Carlsbad real estate saw an increase in sales and lower market time when compared to the previous year.    Over 206 homes went under contract and/or sold from October to December.   A 36% increase in sales when compared to the same period in 2008.  The average time to sell a home decreased from near 90 days down close to 60 days.  And even as buying activity is comparatively stronger than the previous year, prices have stayed relatively flat.  Conservative appraisals are keeping housing appreciation low and steady.  Buyers should not feel pressured to buy because of low rates or tax credits.  Buyers should take their time and focus on the area they want to live and find a home that fits all of their needs.   

But if you are waiting for prices to decrease further, it could be a long wait.

Housing bears are hoping for a double dip in housing prices.  This is predicated on the sudden release of large amounts of “shadow inventory” from banks and a sharp increase in mortgage rates.  Banks have shown that, although they do have an unknown number of homes sitting vacant and unsold, their intent is not to flood the market with their own property and compete with themselves.  And mortgage rates will rise when federal stimulus ends and the government withdraws from the secondary mortgage market.  But as of January 15^th 2010, the Federal Reserve plans continued stimulus until the broader economy shows clear signs of sustainability and recovery.  And with recovery comes confidence and income.  And according to Zell, since inventory is expected to remain restricted, buyers will reluctantly pay the higher cost associated with increased mortgage rates.

3 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom and approx. 1,538 sq. ft. – Price likely in the low $400s.  We are excited to see!

Call today to join interest list and to schedule a private tour at reo@lundteam.com

Stunning Views To Pacific Ocean

Gourmet Kitchen

Front of 6426 Terraza Portico

The remaining 3% of the bank owned inventory goes to high-end homes in the most desirable areas of the county such as La Jolla and Rancho Santa Fe. The highest priced REO home at 18117 Aliso Canyon is located in Rancho Santa Fe and listed for $5,495,000. One property at 18787 Heritage Drive in Poway is currently on the market for $2,595,000. This same home was sold less than one year ago on 7/2/09 for $3,400,000, equaling a total savings of $805,000 or 23.7% from the July purchase price. In the Bay Collection (community in the Aviara area) of Carlsbad two properties have recently closed near the 1,000,000 mark. 7089 Marsh Wren Street (5 bedroom, 4.5 baths, 3484 square foot home) sold for $1,551,000 in 2005. The next time this property was sold on 6/26/09 as a bank owned foreclosure the price would be $976,000, a 37% savings. Also, in the Aviara area, 1372 Corvidae Street sold for $785,000, other like properties listed as regular sales are priced at $1,029,000 and $1,150,000. Buyers purchasing bank-owned properties can get amazing deals and it needs not to be forgotten that these same deals are also widely available in the luxury home market.

And the results: 
2005: Average sale price = $959,453 – 86 homes sold (detached) – at $355 per sq. ft.
2009: Average sale price = $810,952 – 69 homes sold (detached) – at $285 per sq. ft.

An Aviara home purchased in 2005 decreased roughly 15% in value off peak figures.   There are a number of areas and neighborhoods locally that have lost between 40% and 50% off their peek selling price.  

Sell and Rent Option:  House owned fee and clear to $900,000 value. 

Selling cost of $54,000:  5% selling cost with 1% title and escrow

$4,000 a month rental fees x 12 months = $48,000 a year x 4 years = $192,000

Total cost:  $54,000 + $192,000 = $240,000  

vs

No Loan = $10,000 year in property taxes x 4 years: $40,000 (write-off of taxes from income maybe $8,000 to $10,000 in value). = $32,000.     

Total cost:  $32,000 + $148,000 in lost principle:  $180,000

This does not account for other expenses of homeownership or what you could of invested your gain in.  But hindsight is 20/20.

The rental option also has some non-monetary downfalls.  First, there are very few higher-end rentals in the Aviara area.  They are costly at upwards of $4,200 to $4,500 a month.  What you pay in rent is non-deductable.  And there is value to living where you want to live with the stability of your owning your own home.  

But having the sales figures show the modest 15% decline is great to see on paper, what we see and feel everyday in the area. 

We’ll take you to The Argyle restraunt in Aviara and tell you why Aviara is one of the best places to live in San Diego.   Maybe the world.

Feature home for Sale: 1364 Corvidae Street , Carlsbad 92011 -   http://www.firsthometour.com/10689.

Aviara - Home of Four Seasons

Built by John Laing Homes (known for quality product)  in 2003. this is a neighborhood to keep on your 2010 radar.

Market update:
2009 – average sales price for last 6 months Dec – July = $710,000 at $302 per sq. ft.

2005 – average sales price for Dec – July = $925,000 at $382 per sq. ft.

(10) NOD, Bank Owned, Preforclosures notices currently on tax records. – Be on the lookout for more in 2010…

I used numbers based on same time period of the year to illustrate the value one can now find at the beach. Over $200,000 off the selling price just a few years ago. With no new additional land being added at the coast please consider this as a wonderful place to live and invest.

**Water’s End deal of 2009 – Over 2,300 sq. ft. sold at $660,000 (cash sale) in September – Bank Owned! **

The Lund Team has represented buyers, sellers, builder (John Laing Homes) and currently owns an investment home in Water’s End.   Please consider us for any of your buying or selling needs.

Contact Contact@LundTeam.com or call 760.438.0800.

Water's End by Lund Team