Here is an example of biased stat making not painting the whole picture.
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WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) – Sales of U.S. existing homes plunged 16.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.45 million from 6.54 million in November as a popular tax credit was set to expire, a national real estate trade group estimated Monday. The 16.7% percentage decline from November to December was the largest on record, the National Association of Realtors reported. The decline was larger than the 11% drop to 5.80 million that was expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Sales in December were up 15% compared with December 2008. The median sales price rose to $178,300 in December, up 1.5% compared with a year earlier. It’s the first year-over-year increase in prices since August 2007. Link To Article
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You know this bias play on Stats. But why pick the ‘Decline’ stat? These are positive numbers. Here’s what I read of the sales drop in December.
- True lack of available property unlike any year previous. Less homes = fewer sales. Fewer homes than ‘economists expected’ – but UP 15% over same time period in 2008.
In most areas of the country, home sales decline in December. Banks, lenders and appraisers have almost 1/3 less time in the month to get the homes processed and closed. North County home sales have declined as much as 30% – even in the go-go years of 2002-2004. I would like to see year on year comparison for the past decade of the same time period.
And I would like to see the sales figures put up against # of homes for sale. If the ‘months of inventory’ nationally is similar to North County figures of 2-3 months…then low sales figures is a function of lack of available inventory. The headline would suggest a decline in sales; which infers less demand and a softening market.
The headline could read
“Home Sales up 15% – Prices push higher”
“Home Values Inch higher: Sales up 15% over 2008″
A sales decline is more relevant when sellable inventory is above 12 months; or a changing pace is leading that direction. Price declines can be expected when property competes.
Just a thought. Tyson Lund
General News, Market News, Recent Sales, Stats
Mon, Jan 25, 2010
General News